election_tracker.utf8.md

Live Results

As of 9:50 AM, 84 voters in 20 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 103,757 people have voted in person across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 72,058 - 138,305). In addition, 342,044 mail-in ballots have already been returned, and 93,385 are still outstanding.

Maps

I use historic correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting. See the Methodology.

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In)

In-Person Turnout

Mail-In Requests

Mail-In Ballots Returned

Raw Responses (for debugging)

Submissions

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

**Estimated Turnout by Ward**

ward	time_of_day	turnout	turnout_p025	turnout_p975

01	9:50 AM	1439	c(`2.5%` = 1086)	c(`97.5%` = 1874)
02	9:50 AM	2357	c(`2.5%` = 1721)	c(`97.5%` = 3029)
03	9:50 AM	1355	c(`2.5%` = 920)	c(`97.5%` = 1933)
04	9:50 AM	1358	c(`2.5%` = 921)	c(`97.5%` = 2002)
05	9:50 AM	3306	c(`2.5%` = 2398)	c(`97.5%` = 4285)
06	9:50 AM	920	c(`2.5%` = 651)	c(`97.5%` = 1305)
07	9:50 AM	859	c(`2.5%` = 463)	c(`97.5%` = 1968)
08	9:50 AM	3227	c(`2.5%` = 2359)	c(`97.5%` = 4248)
09	9:50 AM	1604	c(`2.5%` = 1249)	c(`97.5%` = 2020)
10	9:50 AM	1998	c(`2.5%` = 1398)	c(`97.5%` = 2938)
11	9:50 AM	868	c(`2.5%` = 579)	c(`97.5%` = 1330)
12	9:50 AM	1495	c(`2.5%` = 1032)	c(`97.5%` = 2161)
13	9:50 AM	1348	c(`2.5%` = 918)	c(`97.5%` = 1982)
14	9:50 AM	589	c(`2.5%` = 418)	c(`97.5%` = 826)
15	9:50 AM	1696	c(`2.5%` = 1273)	c(`97.5%` = 2217)
16	9:50 AM	721	c(`2.5%` = 472)	c(`97.5%` = 1160)
17	9:50 AM	1647	c(`2.5%` = 1132)	c(`97.5%` = 2382)
18	9:50 AM	1368	c(`2.5%` = 944)	c(`97.5%` = 1739)
19	9:50 AM	662	c(`2.5%` = 388)	c(`97.5%` = 1332)
20	9:50 AM	646	c(`2.5%` = 407)	c(`97.5%` = 1037)
21	9:50 AM	3741	c(`2.5%` = 2622)	c(`97.5%` = 4783)
22	9:50 AM	2125	c(`2.5%` = 1609)	c(`97.5%` = 3013)
23	9:50 AM	1218	c(`2.5%` = 807)	c(`97.5%` = 1775)
24	9:50 AM	1025	c(`2.5%` = 676)	c(`97.5%` = 1410)
25	9:50 AM	984	c(`2.5%` = 636)	c(`97.5%` = 1409)
26	9:50 AM	1392	c(`2.5%` = 987)	c(`97.5%` = 1764)
27	9:50 AM	1721	c(`2.5%` = 1009)	c(`97.5%` = 2455)
28	9:50 AM	771	c(`2.5%` = 503)	c(`97.5%` = 1242)
29	9:50 AM	769	c(`2.5%` = 549)	c(`97.5%` = 1072)
30	9:50 AM	1549	c(`2.5%` = 1140)	c(`97.5%` = 2150)
31	9:50 AM	1263	c(`2.5%` = 873)	c(`97.5%` = 1537)
32	9:50 AM	1266	c(`2.5%` = 833)	c(`97.5%` = 2014)
33	9:50 AM	1006	c(`2.5%` = 556)	c(`97.5%` = 1987)
34	9:50 AM	2822	c(`2.5%` = 2016)	c(`97.5%` = 3986)
35	9:50 AM	1823	c(`2.5%` = 1183)	c(`97.5%` = 2703)
36	9:50 AM	2269	c(`2.5%` = 1591)	c(`97.5%` = 3076)
37	9:50 AM	815	c(`2.5%` = 528)	c(`97.5%` = 1351)
38	9:50 AM	1398	c(`2.5%` = 996)	c(`97.5%` = 1914)
39	9:50 AM	2725	c(`2.5%` = 1958)	c(`97.5%` = 3489)
40	9:50 AM	2868	c(`2.5%` = 1913)	c(`97.5%` = 4071)
41	9:50 AM	1107	c(`2.5%` = 730)	c(`97.5%` = 1607)
42	9:50 AM	1423	c(`2.5%` = 886)	c(`97.5%` = 2388)
43	9:50 AM	1110	c(`2.5%` = 640)	c(`97.5%` = 2092)
44	9:50 AM	913	c(`2.5%` = 620)	c(`97.5%` = 1341)
45	9:50 AM	1249	c(`2.5%` = 823)	c(`97.5%` = 1755)
46	9:50 AM	1772	c(`2.5%` = 1321)	c(`97.5%` = 2514)
47	9:50 AM	535	c(`2.5%` = 356)	c(`97.5%` = 771)
48	9:50 AM	1277	c(`2.5%` = 856)	c(`97.5%` = 1764)
49	9:50 AM	1651	c(`2.5%` = 1124)	c(`97.5%` = 2438)
50	9:50 AM	2348	c(`2.5%` = 1720)	c(`97.5%` = 3508)
51	9:50 AM	1483	c(`2.5%` = 1023)	c(`97.5%` = 2169)
52	9:50 AM	1848	c(`2.5%` = 1340)	c(`97.5%` = 2702)
53	9:50 AM	1254	c(`2.5%` = 819)	c(`97.5%` = 1845)
54	9:50 AM	889	c(`2.5%` = 539)	c(`97.5%` = 1417)
55	9:50 AM	1453	c(`2.5%` = 976)	c(`97.5%` = 2083)
56	9:50 AM	2123	c(`2.5%` = 1457)	c(`97.5%` = 2908)
57	9:50 AM	1842	c(`2.5%` = 1241)	c(`97.5%` = 2473)
58	9:50 AM	3063	c(`2.5%` = 2069)	c(`97.5%` = 4120)
59	9:50 AM	1592	c(`2.5%` = 1121)	c(`97.5%` = 2268)
60	9:50 AM	1274	c(`2.5%` = 893)	c(`97.5%` = 1820)
61	9:50 AM	1915	c(`2.5%` = 1279)	c(`97.5%` = 2785)
62	9:50 AM	1345	c(`2.5%` = 860)	c(`97.5%` = 2083)
63	9:50 AM	1769	c(`2.5%` = 1260)	c(`97.5%` = 2330)
64	9:50 AM	994	c(`2.5%` = 679)	c(`97.5%` = 1385)
65	9:50 AM	1446	c(`2.5%` = 1009)	c(`97.5%` = 1943)
66	9:50 AM	3069	c(`2.5%` = 2105)	c(`97.5%` = 4100)

Raw Submissions

**Submitted Data**

Time of Vote	Precinct	Voter Number

7:10 AM	5107	2
7:41 AM	0537	24
7:42 AM	0501	14
7:43 AM	0828	33
7:03 AM	2714	2
7:40 AM	1508	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:25 AM	0214	16
7:56 AM	3636	33
7:13 AM	0218	9
8:07 AM	4603	27
8:16 AM	0218	60
8:18 AM	0222	68
8:10 AM	1810	36
8:20 AM	3635	57
8:30 AM	3110	55
8:32 AM	0532	69
8:30 AM	2707	45
8:32 AM	2702	48
8:15 AM	3901	52
8:15 AM	3640	64
8:38 AM	3638	55
8:38 AM	3637	31
8:42 AM	0525	64
8:40 AM	0501	36
7:30 AM	0202	28
8:40 AM	0537	56
8:12 AM	4616	41
8:35 AM	3909	65
8:43 AM	0517	69
8:49 AM	0834	73
8:49 AM	0206	69
8:50 AM	0828	77
8:07 AM	0801	40
7:30 AM	3640	31
7:30 AM	3104	29
8:50 AM	0213	25
8:40 AM	2717	56
8:45 AM	2101	47
8:25 AM	3945	52
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
9:02 AM	1503	92
7:15 AM	0902	12
8:40 AM	2717	56
7:01 AM	0807	13
9:09 AM	4701	73
8:50 AM	0213	25
9:10 AM	1514	81
7:55 AM	1517	30
9:00 AM	3914	40
8:00 AM	5702	60
8:30 AM	2105	91
8:30 AM	2105	91
9:15 AM	2714	51
8:15 AM	2605	56
9:20 AM	3637	100
9:20 AM	3638	79
8:30 AM	0521	92
9:20 AM	0532	112
9:15 AM	1802	73
9:24 AM	2911	62
9:03 AM	0229	95
9:23 AM	0812	138
8:50 AM	0828	77
9:00 AM	3107	100
9:15 AM	3639	86
9:15 AM	0120	76
9:30 AM	0308	109
9:30 AM	0807	98
9:25 AM	3610	84
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:35 AM	0817	107
8:40 AM	1514	68
8:00 AM	0106	69
8:40 AM	1514	68
9:38 AM	6008	49
9:30 AM	3636	108
7:15 AM	0114	9
9:46 AM	3111	104
9:47 AM	0204	72
9:50 AM	0505	92

Download the csvs: - Raw Submissions - Division Predictions

Live 2020 Election Turnout Tracker